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Moldovan zugzwang after the parliamentary election
04 àâãóñòà 2009 | Alexander Tsinker
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As it had been predicted by public opinion polls, four oppositional parties got the majority in the Parliament after the early election in Moldova, which had been held on July 29. These parties will be able to form a governing coalition, elect the Parliament’s Speaker and start legislative activities.
Nevertheless, there are not enough votes of anti-communist parties, which got the seats in the Parliament, to elect the new Moldovan President (this was the reason why the early election was held). And this is the President who proposes the Prime Minister candidate and confirms the new government.
The situation, which took place in Moldova in May 2009 repeats itself, but at that time it was the Communists who needed one more vote to elect the President. The opposition boycotted the voting on the Communist candidate, saying that they would seek the Parliament dissolution (according to the law, if the President is not elected after two attempts, the Parliament must be dissolved).
If we don’t take into account the hardly probable scenario, when one of the sides admits its defeat and drops out of the fight, and if we overlook all the political nuances, now there are only two ways out of the current situation. Let’s call them “Ukrainian” and “Israeli” ones for convenience.
“Ukrainian” scenario
Two opposing sides fight to the bitter end, thus blocking the activity of all the government bodies. The attempts to elect the new head of state fail again. The attempts to make amendments in the Moldovan Constitution would be initiated to find a way out of the current zugzwang, or the new early elections will be called. The society polarization would be still deeper and the political clashes would be still more radical.
This situation looks like the political process that has been developing in Ukraine since 2004. Then in Ukraine and now in Moldova both the sides enjoy approximately equal support of the population and of the Parliament but can’t (or probably don’t want to) stand beyond the party’s interests and find the compromising solution.
“Israeli” scenario
Nowadays Moldova, which is the poorest country in Europe, torn by internal contradictions and problems of self-proclaimed Transnistria and autonomous region of Gagauz, is in a critical situation. There is not only the question, which way they should choose or what countries Moldova should orient strategically (here a whole set of propositions exists). The situation is much more complicated. Under the circumstances and correlation of political forces there is the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Moldova are in danger.
For 60 years of the history of Israel more than once uncompromising rivals, two the largest Israeli parties, formed a grand coalition in the Parliament in order to unite the people, to work out social compromise and to make vital, strategic decisions.
It’s understandable that this is the interim measure, but it makes it possible to end the deadlock and let the both sides make concessions to each other.
There are few scenarios for the Moldovan establishment: either to continue the confrontation or to try to find the way out of the situation. Which way the elected MPs will choose depends on their wisdom. |
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