| TAJIKISTAN: Perspectives |
As the December presidential elections in Tajikistan are approaching, the situation in the country becomes more dynamic. Last year’s elections for the “Maljlisi Mamoiandogan” (the House of Representative), resulted in absolute victory (52 of 63 chairs) of the official People-Democratic Party of Tajikistan. Its legal opposition, from not-too-long-ago-powerful moderately-Islamic Party of Islamic Renaissance of Tajikistan to trying-to-be-European Social-Democratic Parties of Justice, Democracy and Socialist Parties are not very popular among people. The capabilities of the opposition to present their political views to people are quite limited, and President’s Rakhmonov’s regime rather effectively prevents the possibility for the anti-presidential parties to unite.
Charismatic leader of the Democratic party Mahmadruzi Iskandarov is knocked out of the game via “legal” route (at present he is serving his 23-year sentence). Social party, as a result of a cleverly orchestrated intrigue, is broken into two antagonistic fractions. Party of Islamic Renaissance is under a “suspicion” for support of the international terrorism. And the Social-Democratic party members and their leader Rakhmatillo Zoyirov are frequently and creatively criticized by the official press for some completely made-up causes.
The top never failing claim of the regime is the propaganda of “real stability” accomplished under the leadership of Rakhmanov. According to the citizens, traumatized by the five-year long civil war of 1992-1997, this “order” justifies the corruption and poverty, and the absence of real democracy. One more factor that is used to the Rakhmanov’s benefit is the cultivated propaganda of the nationalistic pride. Having officially announced the Tajikistanis as ancient Arian nation, the authorities skillfully prevent the spreading of “foreign” ideologies – western liberalism, as well as Islamic fundamentalism.
In this situation Rakhmanov’s regime is heavily betting on retaining of support of the People-Democratic Party, employing all the might of the administrative resources and nationalistic propaganda. Simultaneously, Dushanbe has drastically toughened its policies on non-government organizations. Also, with the open support of authorities, were established two more “technical” parties - the Agricultural Party and the Party of Economic Reforms, designed to create the illusion of “real pluralism” of political life and distract the neutral and moderately-opposing voters from the real opposition. And, finally, a serious role in maintaining the stability of the regime, plays its “special relationship” with Russia.
President Rakhmanov, has good reasons to seriously count on re-elections. For the opposition, the success is possible only in theory, and only assuming a strict consolidation of all the oppositional parties over one joint platform. To accomplish it, the opponents will be required to take a sequence of important political steps. Firstly, it is necessary to raise the question about illegality of Rakhmanov’s re-election for the second term, since there are interpretations of the Constitution (although not confirmed by the referendum) that deny the acting president the right to be re-elected for the second term. Secondly, it is extremely important for the individual leaders of the oppositional parties to give up their personal ambitions and select a new charismatic “single candidate”.
Such candidates potentially exist. For example, the Democratic party could unite around Timur Toshaev, the younger brother of Mahmadruzi Iskandarov, who is recognized among business-circles, including those connected with bigger parties – social-democrats and “renaissancers”. Social-democrats, on their part, have recently overcome the consequences of their fracture and strengthened their positions on account of the activists of the National Heritage Party, and based on that the leader of SDs Rakhmatillo Zoyirov could score some real points. And finally, the fracture of the Socialist Party into pro-presidential (led by K. Voseev and A. Gafurov) and the one opposing, presents an opportunity to the leader of the “social-opposing” fraction Mirhussein Narziev, the former leader of the united Socialist Party to position himself as a non-compromising leader, capable of uniting all fractions and oppositions under his leadership.
As far as the largest and most powerful anti-rakhmanov force, the Party of Islamic Renaissance of Tajikistan, as of today, it is hard to determine whether it will be willing to form such a coalition: it will all depend on which of the groups of the party elite will win the leadership race. If the leadership of PIRT will be claimed by Muhiddin Kabiri, the moderate Islamist, oriented based on his program, on installment of European values, then the “broad coalition” might take place. If the race is won by the supporters of Muhammad Nuri, the son and ideological inheritor of the current leader of PIRT – Said Abdullo Nuri, oriented towards traditional values, the chances for consolidation are slim. This, in turn, would almost guaranty an easy victory for the President Rakhmanov in his struggle to remain in power.
Most certainly, the probability of consolidation of the tajiki opposition should not be overestimated. Nevertheless, keeping in mind the real conflict potential of the society generated by social-economic and political reasons, we can state that the current regime must be extremely vigilant. And, judging by the harshening measures taken against the opposition, including the establishment of “technical” parties, the authorities in power fully realize this fact.
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18 May 2006 |
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